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Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T21:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T21:28Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30445/-1
CME Note: Southern, fainter piece of one eruption that appears to have sent fronts in two directions. CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and 2-3 frames of LASCO C3, due to a data gap in SOHO LASCO beginning at 2024-05-03T23:27Z in C2 (2024-05-03T23:31Z in C3) and an ongoing data gap in STEREO COR2A. Best observed in SDO AIA 193 as an eruption sourced around N09E33, with a broad, faint dimming seen to the north and darker dimming (spanning E52->E26 and S08->N14) seen to the south. Also observed as wide field line openings in SDO AIA 171. This front is the southern of the pair of fronts observed, and more likely to correlate to the southern end of this dimming. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-06T18:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 04/0425
Radial velocity (km/s): 481
Longitude (deg): -32
Latitude (deg):8
Half-angular width (deg):40

Notes:

Lead Time: 41.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-05-05T00:45Z

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